Poker odds are the chance of something happening in a hand, written as a percentage or as
odds against. Both say the same thing: a flush draw on the turn hits with 9 of the 46 unseen cards, which is
about 20%, or 4 to 1 against.
Odds against
Chance
1 to 1
50%
2 to 1
33%
3 to 1
25%
4 to 1
20%
9 to 1
10%
220 to 1
0.45% (being dealt pocket aces)
To convert, add the two numbers and divide: 4 to 1 is 1 win in 5, so 20%.
What are the odds of being dealt each starting hand?
There are 1,326 two-card starting hands, and each exact pair of cards is equally likely. A
pocket pair can be dealt 6 ways, a suited hand 4, an offsuit hand 12 (the full count is in
our guide to combos in poker).
Starting hand
Ways
Chance
Odds
A♠A♥ Pocket aces (or any one pair)
6
0.45%
1 in 221
A♠K♠ Ace-king suited
4
0.30%
1 in 332
A♠K♥ Ace-king, suited or not
16
1.2%
1 in 83
Aces, kings, queens or ace-king
34
2.6%
1 in 39
Any pocket pair
78
5.9%
1 in 17
Two cards ten or higher
190
14.3%
1 in 7
Any hand with an ace
198
14.9%
1 in 6.7
Any suited hand
312
23.5%
1 in 4.3
Which of those hands are worth playing, and from which seat, is in our
best starting hands guide.
What are the odds of hitting the flop?
Mostly you miss.
With two unpaired cards, the flop pairs at least one of them about a third
of the time, so two flops in three miss both your cards.
You hold
The flop gives you
Chance
Odds
8♠8♥ Pocket pair
Three of a kind or better
11.8%
1 in 8.5
A full house
0.98%
1 in 102
Four of a kind
0.24%
1 in 408
A♠K♥ Two unpaired cards
A pair or better with your cards
32.4%
1 in 3.1
Two pair or better, using both
2.1%
1 in 47
8♠7♠ Suited and connected
A flush
0.84%
1 in 119
A flush draw (four of your suit)
10.9%
1 in 9.1
A straight
1.3%
1 in 77
An eight-out straight draw
9.7%
1 in 10.3
Pocket pairs below kings also have to survive overcards. At least one card higher than your
pair lands on 41% of flops with queens, 57% with jacks and 70% with tens.
What are the odds of hitting your draw?
Count your outs, the unseen cards that complete your hand, and read the chance off the
chart. On the flop you have seen 5 cards, so 47 are unseen; on the turn, 46.
Draw
Outs
Turn
River
Turn or river
Flush draw and open-ended straight draw
15
31.9%
32.6%
54.1%
Flush draw
9
19.1%
19.6%
35.0%
Open-ended straight draw
8
17.0%
17.4%
31.5%
Two overcards
6
12.8%
13.0%
24.1%
Gutshot straight draw
4
8.5%
8.7%
16.5%
Pocket pair to a set
2
4.3%
4.3%
8.4%
Holding A♥7♥
on K♥9♥2♣,
the nine hearts you cannot see are your outs: 35% to make the flush by the river. Count only
cards that make you the best hand. A heart that also pairs the board can complete your flush
and still lose to a full house.
The full poker odds chart for draws, with the quick rule beside it:
Outs
Next card
Turn or river
Outs × 4
1
2.1%
4.3%
4%
2
4.3%
8.4%
8%
3
6.4%
12.5%
12%
4
8.5%
16.5%
16%
5
10.6%
20.4%
20%
6
12.8%
24.1%
24%
7
14.9%
27.8%
28%
8
17.0%
31.5%
32%
9
19.1%
35.0%
36%
10
21.3%
38.4%
40%
11
23.4%
41.7%
44%
12
25.5%
45.0%
48%
13
27.7%
48.1%
52%
14
29.8%
51.2%
56%
15
31.9%
54.1%
60%
16
34.0%
57.0%
64%
17
36.2%
59.8%
68%
18
38.3%
62.4%
72%
19
40.4%
65.0%
76%
20
42.6%
67.5%
80%
“Next card” is the flop-to-turn figure; with one card to come from the turn it is a fraction
higher (9 outs: 19.6%). The rule of 2 and 4, outs × 2 with one card to come and × 4 with two,
is close up to about 9 outs and runs high after that: 48% for 12 outs against 45.0%, and 60%
for 15 outs against 54.1%.
What are the odds of common preflop matchups?
All in before the flop, the hand that is ahead usually wins, but rarely by as much as it feels.
Matchup
Favourite
Underdog
A♠A♥ vs K♦K♣ Bigger pair vs smaller pair
81.9%
18.1%
J♠J♥ vs 8♦7♦ Pair vs two lower cards
79.0%
21.0%
A♠K♦ vs A♥Q♣ Same ace, better kicker
74.4%
25.6%
9♠9♥ vs A♦8♣ Pair vs one higher, one lower card
71.2%
28.8%
A♠K♦ vs 8♥7♥ Two high cards vs two lower cards
58.8%
41.2%
Q♠Q♥ vs A♦K♣ Pair vs two higher cards
56.8%
43.2%
2♠2♥ vs A♦K♣ Small pair vs two higher cards
52.6%
47.4%
Share of the pot over all 1,712,304 possible boards, averaged over every suit combination.
The last two rows are what players call a coin flip: a pair against two higher cards. The
pair is always slightly ahead. The same hand, one suited, is closer still:
A♠K♠ against
A♦K♣ splits the pot
on 91% of boards. Run any matchup, or a hand against a whole range, in our
poker odds calculator.
How often does someone hold a bigger pair?
Rarely against one player, and much more often at a full table. These are the odds before
anyone acts. Once a player raises and re-raises, they jump, because players put in big bets
with big hands.
Your pair
1 opponent
5 opponents
8 opponents
K♠K♥
0.5%
2.5%
3.9%
Q♠Q♥
1.0%
4.9%
7.7%
J♠J♥
1.5%
7.2%
11.3%
10♠10♥
2.0%
9.5%
14.8%
8♠8♥
2.9%
13.9%
21.4%
How do the odds change against more players?
Every hand wins less often as players join, and big pairs stop being near-certain. Pocket aces
win about half the time against five opponents.
Hand
1 opponent
2
3
4
5
A♠A♥
85.2%
73.5%
63.9%
55.9%
49.2%
K♠K♥
82.4%
68.8%
58.4%
49.7%
43.1%
A♠K♠
67.1%
50.8%
41.3%
35.4%
31.1%
7♠7♥
66.3%
46.8%
34.3%
26.8%
21.9%
J♠10♠
57.6%
41.9%
33.9%
28.6%
24.8%
2♠2♥
50.1%
30.9%
22.0%
17.7%
15.4%
All in before the flop against random hands, 200,000 simulated deals per cell. The order
changes too: jack-ten suited trails pocket sevens heads-up and passes them by four opponents,
because straights and flushes win bigger fields where one pair does not.
Why do odds against a random hand mislead?
Because nobody plays a random hand. The players who put money in hold the better part of the
deck, so almost every hand you hold is weaker against them than an odds chart says.
Hand
Against a random hand
Against hands that call a raise
A♠A♥
85%
83%
A♠K♥
65%
62%
9♠9♥
72%
63%
A♠5♠
60%
51%
K♠10♥
60%
50%
Q♠J♥
58%
48%
K♠7♥
55%
45%
2♠2♥
50%
45%
The hands that fall furthest are the ones that look good against nothing. King-ten and
queen-jack go from clear favourites to coin flips; king-seven goes from favourite to underdog.
Pocket aces barely move. Read any figure against a random hand as a ceiling.
The right-hand column is all-in equity against the hands a big blind continues with when a
cutoff raises, from our 6-max solver ranges. Ranked this way, the top 20 starting hands are on
our poker cheat sheet, and the ranges themselves on the
preflop charts.
What is the probability of each poker hand?
In Texas Hold’em you use the best five of seven cards, so by the river every strong hand is
far more common than in five-card poker.
Hand
Hold’em, by the river
Odds
Five-card poker
Royal flush
0.0032%
1 in 30,940
1 in 649,740
Straight flush
0.028%
1 in 3,591
1 in 72,193
Four of a kind
0.17%
1 in 595
1 in 4,165
Full house
2.6%
1 in 38.5
1 in 694
Flush
3.0%
1 in 33
1 in 509
Straight
4.6%
1 in 21.6
1 in 255
Three of a kind
4.8%
1 in 20.7
1 in 47
Two pair
23.5%
1 in 4.3
1 in 21
One pair
43.8%
1 in 2.3
1 in 2.4
High card
17.4%
1 in 5.7
1 in 2
Counted over all 133,784,560 seven-card deals and all 2,598,960 five-card hands. With seven
cards you finish with a pair more often than with nothing. Which hand beats which is on the
poker hand rankings chart.
How do you use poker odds at the table?
Compare your chance of winning with the price of the call. If the call costs more than your
share of the pot is worth, fold.
On the turn with a flush draw, you hit about 20% of the time. Facing a half-pot bet you are
paying 25% of the final pot, so the raw odds say fold. How to work out that price in two
seconds is in how to calculate pot odds, along with
implied odds, the money you expect to win after you hit.
Before the flop, the odds that matter most are against what your opponents actually hold, and
those come from ranges rather than single hands. Knowing which hands to play from each seat,
quickly, is a trained skill, and it is what the PlusEV preflop trainer drills.
Quick answers
What are the odds of a royal flush in Texas Hold'em?
1 in 30,940 once all seven cards are out. In five-card poker it is 1 in 649,740.
What are the odds of being dealt pocket aces?
1 in 221. Any pocket pair comes 1 in 17, and ace-king, suited or not, 1 in 83.
What are the odds of flopping a set?
11.8% with any pocket pair, about 1 flop in 8.5.
What are the odds of hitting a flush draw?
35% by the river with two cards to come, and about 20% with one card to come.
Is a coin flip in poker really 50/50?
Close, and the pair is always the slight favourite: deuces win 52.6% against ace-king offsuit, queens 56.8%.
What are the odds pocket aces beat pocket kings?
81.9% all in before the flop, averaged over every suit combination.
What does 3 to 1 odds mean?
Three times it fails for every time it happens: 1 in 4, so 25%. To turn any odds into a percentage, divide 1 by the two numbers added together.
What is the 4-2 rule in poker?
A shortcut for drawing odds: multiply your outs by 4 with two cards to come, or by 2 with one. It runs high above about 9 outs: 15 outs reads 60%, but the exact chance is 54%.
What is the most common winning hand in Texas Hold'em?
If nobody folds, two pair: it wins 31% of six-player showdowns. Heads-up, one pair wins most often, 37% of the time.
