What are implied odds in poker?

Implied odds are the chips you expect to win on later streets if your hand improves. They are what makes some calls correct when the price on its own says fold. Pot odds compare your call with the pot as it stands. Implied odds add the bets your opponent will pay after you hit. You have a flush draw on the turn and the raw price is slightly too high, but if the river bet gets called when the flush comes in, the call makes money.

How do you calculate implied odds?

Divide the call by your equity, then subtract the pot after your call. What is left is how much you need to win later, on average, every time you hit.

The pot is 100 on the turn and your opponent bets 50, so you call 50 into 150. A flush draw has 9 outs from 46 unseen cards, 19.6% equity. The call divided by equity is 255.6, and the pot after your call is 200, so you need 55.6 more on the river. That is a bet of a bit over a quarter of a 200 pot. It is a fair ask of an opponent who has already bet the turn.

How much extra does each draw need?

It climbs fast as the bet grows. On the turn, with one card to come and 100 in the pot before the bet:

DrawEquityThird-pot betHalf-pot betThree-quarter betPot-sized bet
Flush draw, 9 outs19.6%356133211
Open-ended straight draw, 8 outs17.4%2488181275
Two overcards, 6 outs13.0%87183325467
Gutshot, 4 outs8.7%214375613850

A flush draw against a third-pot bet needs almost nothing. A gutshot against a pot-sized bet needs 850, more than eight times the pot, and no one pays that often. These figures assume your outs are clean and you win every time you hit. When some of them lose, you need more.

How much does a pocket pair need?

A pocket pair flops a set or better 11.8% of the time, 7.5 to 1 against, so a set has to win 7.5 times the call minus what is in the pot. Calling 2.5 big blinds into a pot of 4 needs about 15 big blinds later, around 15% of what is left at 100 big blinds. The usual rule of thumb is a stack 15 to 20 times the call. Our pocket pairs guide has a set-mining calculator for your own stacks.

Do small pairs really call when the price is right?

Yes: price decides it, even over position. We took every facing-a-3-bet spot in PlusEV’s 6-max cash solver ranges at 100 big blinds, worked out the price from the betting, and counted how pocket deuces to fives respond, weighted by how often each seat opens them.

FacingSpotsYour callStack ÷ callA set must win22-55 callFold
7.5bb 3-bet from a later seat65bb18.5×26bb97%3%
Big blind’s 3-bet, from the small blind17bb12.9×40bb100%0%
11-13bb 3-bet from a blind88.5-10.5bb8.3-10.5×49-63bb37%62%

The first row is played out of position and the last in position, so position alone would predict the opposite. In PlusEV’s ranges, small pairs call a 3-bet almost every time when the stack is 18.5 times the call and fold most of the time when it is about 10 times or less. That sits close to the 15-times rule.

Cutoff facing a button 3-bet to 7.5bb, 6-max cash, 100bb. Small pairs call: the stack is 18.5 times the price.
AAAKsAQsAJsATsA9sA8sA7sA6sA5sA4sA3sA2s
AKoKKKQsKJsKTsK9sK8sK7sK6sK5sK4sK3sK2s
AQoKQoQQQJsQTsQ9sQ8sQ7sQ6sQ5sQ4sQ3sQ2s
AJoKJoQJoJJJTsJ9sJ8sJ7sJ6sJ5sJ4sJ3sJ2s
AToKToQToJToTTT9sT8sT7sT6sT5sT4sT3sT2s
A9oK9oQ9oJ9oT9o9998s97s96s95s94s93s92s
A8oK8oQ8oJ8oT8o98o8887s86s85s84s83s82s
A7oK7oQ7oJ7oT7o97o87o7776s75s74s73s72s
A6oK6oQ6oJ6oT6o96o86o76o6665s64s63s62s
A5oK5oQ5oJ5oT5o95o85o75o65o5554s53s52s
A4oK4oQ4oJ4oT4o94o84o74o64o54o4443s42s
A3oK3oQ3oJ3oT3o93o83o73o63o53o43o3332s
A2oK2oQ2oJ2oT2o92o82o72o62o52o42o32o22
FoldCallAll-InRaise 21
Cutoff facing a big-blind 3-bet to 13bb, 6-max cash, 100bb. Same seat, same small pairs, mostly folds at 8.3 times.
AAAKsAQsAJsATsA9sA8sA7sA6sA5sA4sA3sA2s
AKoKKKQsKJsKTsK9sK8sK7sK6sK5sK4sK3sK2s
AQoKQoQQQJsQTsQ9sQ8sQ7sQ6sQ5sQ4sQ3sQ2s
AJoKJoQJoJJJTsJ9sJ8sJ7sJ6sJ5sJ4sJ3sJ2s
AToKToQToJToTTT9sT8sT7sT6sT5sT4sT3sT2s
A9oK9oQ9oJ9oT9o9998s97s96s95s94s93s92s
A8oK8oQ8oJ8oT8o98o8887s86s85s84s83s82s
A7oK7oQ7oJ7oT7o97o87o7776s75s74s73s72s
A6oK6oQ6oJ6oT6o96o86o76o6665s64s63s62s
A5oK5oQ5oJ5oT5o95o85o75o65o5554s53s52s
A4oK4oQ4oJ4oT4o94o84o74o64o54o4443s42s
A3oK3oQ3oJ3oT3o93o83o73o63o53o43o3332s
A2oK2oQ2oJ2oT2o92o82o72o62o52o42o32o22
FoldCallRaise 27.5

Suited connectors follow the same pattern from a higher floor. Ten-nine to five-four suited call 76% of the time at the cheap price and 57% at the expensive one. They flop a flush or straight only 2.1% of the time, against 11.8% for a set, but they also flop draws that can win more than one way. By the river, eight-seven suited has made a flush or straight 15.0% of the time; a pair has made a set or better 19.2%.

Why isn’t a good price always a call?

Because the price only holds if the betting stops. Calling 2.5 big blinds behind an under-the-gun open leaves a stack 39 times the call, far better than the rule asks for, and PlusEV’s ranges still fold small pairs from the hijack every time. Our read is the players behind: any of them can re-raise before you see a flop, and that price is gone.

Seat, pocket deuces to fivesCalls a lone openCalls an open and a call
Hijack, four players behind0%No such spot
Cutoff, three behind0% to 7%0%
Button, two behind23% to 30%68% to 75%
Small blind, one behind1% to 25%100% in five of six spots
Big blind, closes the action100%100%

Fewer players behind makes the call better, and another caller makes it better again, because the pot is bigger and there is a second stack to win. The small blind is the clearest case: at almost the same price, it goes from mostly folding to always calling once someone else is in. The one exception, over a hijack open and a cutoff call, looks like solver noise rather than a rule.

What are reverse implied odds?

Reverse implied odds are the chips you expect to lose on later streets when you hit a hand that is still second best. Top pair with a weak kicker is the classic case: you pay off when your opponent has you beaten, and win little when you are ahead.

PlusEV’s ranges show the cost. Across the 15 facing-a-3-bet spots, ace-jack offsuit has more equity against the 3-bet range than any small pair, and plays far less often. Each hand is counted by how often the seat opens it:

HandEquity against the 3-bet rangeContinues
Ace-jack offsuit46.7%21.9%
King-queen offsuit41.7%26.4%
Pocket fives43.6%62.1%
Pocket fours42.5%66.4%
Pocket threes41.8%53.2%
Pocket deuces40.8%66.0%

Our read: equity is a share of the pot if every hand goes to showdown, and these hands do not get there evenly. A set is easy to play and hard to read. Ace-jack hits a pair that can lose a big pot to ace-queen or ace-king, which the 3-bet range holds often.

When are implied odds good or bad?

This part is standard theory rather than our data.

  • Good: deep stacks, a hidden draw, an opponent with a strong hand who will not fold it, and position, so you can control the river bet.
  • Bad: short stacks, a draw the board makes obvious, an opponent who folds when the third flush card lands, and draws that make a second-best hand.

Implied odds are the money you expect to win after you hit, and they have a limit: what your opponent has left and will actually pay. In PlusEV’s solver ranges at 100 big blinds, small pairs call a 3-bet 97% of the time when the stack is 18.5 times the call and 37% when it is about 10 times. The PlusEV preflop trainer drills these spots until the price is automatic.

Quick answers

What are implied odds in poker?

The chips you expect to win after the current bet, if your hand improves. Pot odds count only what is in the pot now; implied odds add what your opponent will pay later.

What is the difference between pot odds and implied odds?

Pot odds are the price of a call based on the pot as it stands. Implied odds also count the bets you expect to win on later streets. If your hand's chance of winning beats the pot odds, you do not need implied odds at all.

What is the formula for implied odds?

Divide the call by your equity, then subtract the pot after your call. Calling 50 into a pot of 150 with a 19.6% flush draw: 50 divided by 0.196 is 255.6, minus 200 leaves 55.6 to win later.

How much does a pocket pair need to win to call?

A pocket pair flops a set or better 11.8% of the time, so a set has to win 7.5 times the call, minus what is in the pot. Calling 2.5 big blinds into a pot of 4, that is about 15 big blinds.

What are reverse implied odds?

The chips you expect to lose on later streets when you make a hand that is still second best, such as top pair with a weak kicker. They are why hands with good raw equity can still be folds.

Do implied odds change with stack size?

Yes. They can never be more than what your opponent has left to bet, so deep stacks raise them and short stacks remove them. This is standard theory; PlusEV's figures here are all at 100 big blinds.