From folds: +4bb. From the times you are called: -1.5bb. With no equity at all, this bet would need 42.9% folds.
Fold equity in poker is the part of a bet’s value that comes from the times your opponent folds. The calculator above prices any bet from four numbers: the pot, your bet, your equity when called and how often they fold. It opens on a flush draw betting 7.5 big blinds into 10 on the turn. With 20% equity it needs a fold only 20% of the time, not the 42.9% a pure bluff would need.
The value a bet gains from the times the opponent gives up. Every bet can win two ways: they fold and you take the pot now, or they call and you win at showdown. Fold equity is the first way, and it is the only one a pure bluff has.
Sources define it two ways. Upswing and CardPlayer multiply the fold rate by the pot, so a 40% fold in a 10bb pot is worth 4bb. Wikipedia multiplies the fold rate by the share of the pot the opponent would otherwise win. Both describe the same money from different starting points. The calculator skips the argument and prices the whole bet, folds and calls together.
Price both branches and add them, each weighted by how often it happens:
EV of the bet = fold% × pot + call% × (equity × final pot − bet)
Take the calculator’s opening spot: 10bb in the pot, a 7.5bb bet, 40% folds and a flush draw that wins about 20% of the time on the river (9 outs from 46 cards is 19.6%). Folds are worth 0.4 × 10 = 4bb. When called, the pot is 25bb, the draw wins 20% of it, 5bb, and the bet cost 7.5bb, so that branch is −2.5bb, and it happens 60% of the time: −1.5bb. The bet earns +2.5bb against checking and giving up.
Set the equity to zero and the break-even point has a short form: the opponent must fold more than bet ÷ (pot + bet) of the time. Every point of equity when called lowers it:
| Bet | Folds needed, 0% equity | Folds needed, 20% equity |
|---|---|---|
| 1/3 pot | 25.0% | 0% |
| 1/2 pot | 33.3% | 9.1% |
| 2/3 pot | 40.0% | 16.7% |
| 3/4 pot | 42.9% | 20.0% |
| Pot | 50.0% | 28.6% |
| 2x pot | 66.7% | 50.0% |
The common mistake is adding the called branch at full weight. CardPlayer’s flush-draw example (50 into 80, 40% folds, 18% equity) counts 32 chips from folds plus 32.4 from equity and sets 64.4 against the 50 risked. That sum is not the bet’s value: the call only happens 60% of the time, and the 50 is spent in it, so the bet is worth +21.4 chips. The shortcut reaches the right verdict here, but it asks for 22% folds where the bet breaks even at 18%.
Less often than a pure bluff needs, at every level. We played 400,000 six-handed hands through the solver’s own preflop strategy for all six seats, using the same exported 6-max ranges at 100 big blinds that our charts use, card removal included, and logged every raise. In PlusEV’s simulation, a preflop open takes the blinds 48.4% of the time, against the 63.5% a raise with no equity would need.
| Raise | Wins the pot at once | Needed with no equity |
|---|---|---|
| Open | 48.4% | 63.5% |
| 3-bet | 51.3% | 69.6% |
| 4-bet | 45.8% | 63.6% |
| 5-bet all in | 45.5% | 71.4% |
That holds seat by seat too: no seat wins often enough at any level for folds alone to pay. The button does best with its open, taking the blinds 55.5% of the time, but it opens to 3bb in our charts and needs 66.7%. The small blind wins at once only 37.9% of the time, because the big blind defends 61.5% of hands against it. Under the gun, with five players still to act, wins 48.2%, more than the cutoff’s 46.6%: every seat behind it defends tighter against an early open.
Bigger raises buy more folds and need more. The big blind’s 3-bets, to 9 to 14 big blinds out of position, win at once 58.7% of the time and need 72.9%. The button’s, to 7.5bb, win 41.9% and need 65.2%.
These are the fold rates behind those figures, taken from the charts. Each is the share of the range that reaches the spot, so a hand counts as often as the player arrives there with it:
| Facing | Folds |
|---|---|
| An open, in the big blind | 64.2% to 72.9% (38.5% against a small-blind open) |
| An open, in the small blind | 85.8% to 90.1% |
| A 3-bet, as the opener | 42.3% to 61.8% |
| A 4-bet, as the 3-bettor | 33.5% to 52.7% |
| An all-in 4-bet, as the 3-bettor | 59.2% to 75.6% |
| A 5-bet all in, as the 4-bettor | 35.7% to 50.3% |
The all-in row is the size trade at work. A 3-bettor folds about two-thirds of its range to a shove, where a 4-bet to 20 to 27 big blinds gets a third to a half. The shove pays for those extra folds with a bigger risk, which is why the solver uses both.
Because its raises have equity when called. The gap between 48.4% and 63.5% is closed by what the opens win when the blinds play back. Even the weakest hands the button opens, such as king-deuce suited and ace-three offsuit, hold a high card or a flush draw to win with.
The same logic picks the bluffs higher up. The 4-bet bluffs are hands like ace-five suited, which blocks aces and can still make a wheel or the nut flush when called. A hand with fold equity and some equity beats a hand with fold equity alone, and that part is standard theory as much as our data.
When the opponent has a reason to call. This section is general theory rather than our data. Calling stations rarely fold, so bluffs against them lose and value bets win. Small bets give the caller a good price and get fewer folds. Each extra player in the pot is one more who must fold. And a player who has already put a lot of their stack in rarely gives up the rest, which is why fold equity shrinks as the pot grows relative to the stacks.
Yes, and most of all for short stacks. This is standard theory rather than our data. With 10 to 20 big blinds, a player’s main move is the all-in, and its value is almost all fold equity: the blinds and antes are a big share of the stack, and opponents risk elimination to call. The tournament payout structure adds pressure on the caller and so adds folds. Once a stack is short enough that opponents call with anything, the shove has no fold equity left.
Before any bluff, compare two numbers: how often you think they fold, and how often they need to. Bet ÷ (pot + bet) is the bar for a hand with nothing, and equity when called lowers it, so draws bet where air checks. The pot odds maths is the same arithmetic from the caller’s side.
The solver ranges PlusEV drills never rely on folds alone: an open wins the blinds at once 48.4% of the time and needs 63.5% to do it with no equity, so every raise carries hands that can win when called. The PlusEV preflop trainer drills those raises spot by spot, including the 3-bet and 4-bet bluffs, so you learn which hands earn their folds.
The value a bet gains from the times your opponent folds. Folding hands you the pot without a showdown, so a bet can make money even with a hand that rarely wins when called.
Multiply how often the opponent folds by the pot before your bet: folding 40% of the time in a 10bb pot is worth 4bb. Whether the bet is profitable also needs the called branch: EV = fold% × pot + call% × (equity × final pot − bet).
With no equity when called, the opponent must fold more than bet ÷ (pot + bet) of the time. That is 25% for a third-pot bet, 33.3% for half pot, 42.9% for three-quarters and 50% for a pot-sized bet.
Pot equity is your share of the pot if the hand goes to showdown. Fold equity is what you win when nobody gets there because the opponent folds. A bet's value is the two combined, each weighted by how often it happens.
No. Fold equity is money you win now, when a bet makes the opponent fold. Implied odds are money you expect to win later, after you hit, and they matter when you call rather than when you bet.
It usually makes opponents fold most. In PlusEV's 6-max solver ranges, a 3-bettor folds 59% to 76% of the time to an all-in 4-bet and 34% to 53% to a 4-bet to 20 to 27 big blinds. But a shove also risks the most, so it needs more folds to pay.
In PlusEV's simulation of the 6-max solver ranges, 48.4% of opens win the blinds without a fight. The button does best at 55.5%, the small blind worst at 37.9%.
